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← Blog · Reviews · 28 July 2026 · 5 min read

3M Open 2026: What the Data Said vs What Happened

Our 3M Open research reviewed against the result — Jackson Koivun's record win, where our four picks landed, and an honest look at a small red week.

By Doug Dinwiddie. Founder of ProPlace. Former DP World Tour caddie.

Jackson Koivun closed out TPC Twin Cities on Sunday at 25 under par, 259 for the week, a new tournament record and his first PGA Tour title in only his third start as a professional. Scottie Scheffler threw a final-round 63 at him and still came up three short. A 21-year-old winning from that far down the market is not an outcome any research model prices highly, and I'll be honest, it isn't one we saw coming either.

So let's do what a preview is worthless without: hold it up against the scoreboard.

We went to Minnesota with four names. Here is exactly where they finished:

  • Hideki Matsuyama: 3rd
  • Tom Kim: 20th
  • Maverick McNealy: 34th
  • Doug Ghim: missed the cut

Matsuyama was the one the analysis got right. His iron play has long travelled well to birdie-heavy, scoreable setups like the 3M, and he was in the mix all week before settling third. On a flat £10 each-way stake he returned +£46. The other three did not reach the places. Tom Kim was steady without ever threatening, McNealy could not get the putter going, and Ghim's week ended on Friday.

Put together, the week came to minus £14. A small red one. I would rather write that plainly than dress it up, because the whole point of showing every selection is that you see the down weeks alongside the good ones.

What do I take from it? The process pointed at the right kind of player in Matsuyama and got him placed. It also reminds you that a birdie-fest like the 3M, on a soft course where the winning number is 25 under, hands out plenty of variance. When a rookie in his third start goes that low, no amount of pre-tournament data was going to have him circled, and that is simply golf.

For the full picture: Since going live in April 2026, ProPlace has logged every selection before play, every win and every miss. See the full record. Past performance is not a guide to future results.

ProPlace is a statistical-analysis and research product for PGA and DP World Tour golf, not a tipping service. If you want to see the numbers behind selections like these before the next event, the 7-day free trial needs no card: https://proplace.golf

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18+ | BeGambleAware.org — Please gamble responsibly. Past performance is not a guide to future results.