Genesis Scottish Open 2026: What the Data Said, and What Tom Kim Did

Before the tournament we published a preview of this event. It's still underneath this piece in spirit, and we're not going to pretend otherwise — the whole point of writing previews in public is that you have to mark them afterwards. So here's the marking.

What happened

Tom Kim won the Genesis Scottish Open at 17 under, closing with a bogey-free 64 on a Sunday when the wind off the Firth of Forth was doing its best to stop him. He was the only player in the field who didn't drop a shot in the final round. Min Woo Lee's 67 got him to 15 under, two back; Matt Fitzpatrick, Johnny Keefer, Robert MacIntyre and Keita Nakajima shared third at 13 under. It was Kim's first PGA Tour win since the autumn of 2023, and the first Scottish Open won by a South Korean.

What we got right

Wind was the variance driver. Our preview called wind "the single biggest driver of scoring variance" at The Renaissance Club, and Sunday made the case for us. The player who handled the gusts cleanest won the tournament. Six birdies, no bogeys, in that weather — that's the exact skill the course profile said would be rewarded.

The winning-score range. We said Renaissance can run low when the corridors are generous and the greens receptive, and 17 under sits comfortably inside the range the last eight editions had established. No prizes for that one, but no embarrassment either.

The leaderboard mixed both tours. We wrote that co-sanctioned links weeks tend to pull DP World Tour regulars and less-heralded names up the board. Third place was shared by a Ryder Cup player, a past champion of this event, and two names most casual PGA Tour viewers wouldn't have picked out of a line-up. The middle of that leaderboard was not where the market's attention had been.

What we got wrong

Here's the one we'd like back. Our preview leaned on the recent-winners pattern: Gotterup, MacIntyre and McIlroy were all elite drivers in their winning seasons, and we said the course's penalty structure favoured that profile. We did add "that is a pattern, not a law" — and the pattern duly broke. Kim didn't win this with his driver. The final-round story was iron play and a clean card: control, distance judgement, and the discipline not to give one back in the wind. If anything, his Sunday looked more like the approach-play-and-scrambling profile we'd sketched for Birkdale the following week than the bomber profile we'd sketched for Scotland.

The lesson we're taking: winner-profile patterns from three editions are thin evidence, and we gave that one more airtime than three data points deserve.

What we can't grade

Our preview also made claims about weather-scenario blending and the mid-market each-way zone that only make sense selection-by-selection, and this article isn't the place to relitigate individual picks. The full selection log for this event — like every event, win or miss — is on the results page. We'd rather you checked it there than took a summary from us here.

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Frequently asked questions

Who won the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?
Tom Kim, at 17 under, with a bogey-free final-round 64 at The Renaissance Club. He beat Min Woo Lee by two shots. It was his first PGA Tour title since autumn 2023 and the first Scottish Open won by a South Korean player.

Who finished in the places?
Min Woo Lee was second at 15 under. Matt Fitzpatrick, Johnny Keefer, Robert MacIntyre and Keita Nakajima shared third at 13 under.

Did ProPlace predict the winner?
We don't publish predictions — we publish research on where our model disagrees with market consensus, and we log every selection publicly, win or miss, on our results page. This article grades our published pre-tournament analysis against what actually happened.

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