What data does the ProPlace PGA Tour player rankings model use?

The model uses 5 inputs: strokes gained data, course history, course fit, recent form, and field strength. These combine to produce a model probability for every player in the field, which is then compared against market consensus to generate the ranked list.

Does ProPlace cover every player in the field or just the favourites?

Every player. ProPlace analyses the full tournament field, not a curated shortlist. That full field coverage is what makes the gap between model probability and market consensus visible across the entire draw — not just the top 20 or 30 names.

What is the conviction score?

The conviction score is a number out of 10 assigned to every player. It reflects how strong the underlying signal is, accounting for data consistency, course history depth, and the quality of the strokes gained trends. A high conviction score means the gap is backed by robust data, not a thin sample.

How is ProPlace different from DataGolf?

DataGolf shows model odds and book odds side by side and is built for analysts comfortable reading raw probability tables. ProPlace takes the gap interpretation step and does it for you — ranking every player by signal strength, scoring each one out of 10, and providing a plain-English summary. The output is a weekly ranked list, not a table you decode yourself.

How often does the ranked list update?

The list carries a live badge and updates in-week as new data becomes available. Rankings on Monday may differ from rankings on Wednesday as form data and other inputs refresh.

Can I check the track record before subscribing?

Yes. The full performance record is published at proplace.golf/performance. It's there to be audited, not just referenced.

What does the free trial include?

The 7-day free trial gives full access to the weekly ranked list, all player conviction scores, plain-English summaries, and in-week updates. No card is required at signup, and the trial cannot convert to a paid subscription on its own - you only pay if you choose a plan.

← Blog · How we pick · 25 June 2026 · 7 min read

How ProPlace Ranks Every Player in a PGA Tour Field Before Tee Time

How the ProPlace PGA Tour model ranks every player in the field on eight weighted factors, scores conviction out of 10, and surfaces the gap to market consensus.

By Doug Dinwiddie

Founder of ProPlace. Former DP World Tour caddie.

Most pre-tournament research ends the same way. You have a spreadsheet open, three tabs of strokes gained data, and a rough sense that someone is worth backing — but you can't quite articulate why, and you're not confident the consensus has it wrong.

That's the gap ProPlace is built to close.

This article explains exactly how the ProPlace PGA Tour player rankings model works, what data it draws on, and why the output looks different from anything else you've used.

The Problem With Most Golf Models

Raw data is everywhere. Strokes gained splits, approach proximity, driving distance, historical finishes at every venue. The problem isn't availability — it's interpretation.

Most tools give you the numbers. They don't tell you which numbers matter this week, for this course, in this field. And they don't tell you where the data and the market consensus are pointing in opposite directions.

That gap between what the model says and what the consensus says is where the signal lives. Most tools leave you to find it yourself.

What the ProPlace Model Actually Does

ProPlace builds a probability estimate for every player in the full tournament field. Not a curated shortlist of 20 or 30 names. Every player.

Those model probabilities are then compared against market consensus, and the entire field is ranked by the size of that gap. The bigger the gap, the higher the player sits in the ranked list.

The output is a single weekly ranked list. Every player gets a conviction score out of 10 and a plain-English summary explaining why they've been flagged. No black box. No raw probability table to decode yourself.

The Five Inputs the Model Uses

The model draws on 5 data inputs, applied consistently across every player in every field:

Strokes gained data across all categories, weighted by recency and relevance to the course type.
Course history, including past finishes, missed cuts, and performance trends at the specific venue.
Course fit, matching a player's statistical profile to what the course actually demands.
Recent form, capturing momentum and current ball-striking quality.
Field strength, adjusting signal weight based on the quality of competition a player has been performing against.

These inputs combine to produce a model probability. That probability is set against market consensus to calculate the gap. The gap drives the ranking.

Why Full Field Coverage Matters

Most golf research tools highlight a handful of players. The logic is that you only need to focus on realistic contenders. But that framing introduces a selection bias before you've even started.

ProPlace analyses every player in the field. That matters because the signal sometimes sits outside the obvious names. A player ranked 80th by market consensus might rank 15th on the model. That gap is only visible if you're looking at the whole field.

The Conviction Score

Every player card carries a conviction score out of 10. This reflects how strong the underlying signal is — not just how large the gap is.

Gap size matters, but so does conviction. A large gap built on thin data carries less weight than a moderate gap backed by consistent strokes gained trends, a strong course history, and a clear course fit match. The conviction score does that filtering for you.

It's the mechanism that separates a meaningful signal from statistical noise.

How the Rankings Update

The ranked list carries a live badge and updates in-week as new data comes in. If a player's form shifts mid-tournament week, the model reflects that.

The list you look at on Monday isn't identical to the list on Wednesday. The signal moves. ProPlace moves with it.

How This Compares to Other Tools

DataGolf is the most technically rigorous alternative. It shows model odds and book odds side by side, covering PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV Golf, and Korn Ferry Tour. But the gap interpretation is left entirely to you — no conviction score, no plain-English summary, no single ranked list. It's built for analysts comfortable reading raw probability tables.

SportsLine runs a 10,000-simulation golf model, but golf is one vertical among many on a multi-sport platform. Picks are presented as outright recommendations rather than value differentials. The model-versus-market framing isn't there.

Action Network's GolfBet content is expert-authored and spread across multiple writers. RotoWire produces weekly expert-opinion picks with no systematic model framing. Neither delivers a ranked list built on a consistent methodology.

ProPlace is golf-only. It covers both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in a single weekly list, and delivers the gap as the central output — ranked, scored, and explained in plain English.

The Track Record

The full performance record is published at proplace.golf/performance. You can audit it before you subscribe. That's a deliberate choice. The track record is there to be scrutinised, not just cited.

Getting Started

ProPlace runs a 7-day free trial with full access. You don't need to commit to a subscription to see this week's rankings.

After the trial, pricing is £20 per month or £200 per year — £16.67 per month, saving £40 against the monthly rate.

Start a free 7-day trial

ProPlace is a statistical-analysis and research service. We do not accept stakes and are not a bookmaker. 18+, please gamble responsibly, BeGambleAware.org.

Frequently asked questions

What data does the ProPlace PGA Tour player rankings model use?: The model uses 5 inputs: strokes gained data, course history, course fit, recent form, and field strength. These combine to produce a model probability for every player in the field, which is then compared against market consensus to generate the ranked list.
Does ProPlace cover every player in the field or just the favourites?: Every player. ProPlace analyses the full tournament field, not a curated shortlist. That full field coverage is what makes the gap between model probability and market consensus visible across the entire draw — not just the top 20 or 30 names.
What is the conviction score?: The conviction score is a number out of 10 assigned to every player. It reflects how strong the underlying signal is, accounting for data consistency, course history depth, and the quality of the strokes gained trends. A high conviction score means the gap is backed by robust data, not a thin sample.
How is ProPlace different from DataGolf?: DataGolf shows model odds and book odds side by side and is built for analysts comfortable reading raw probability tables. ProPlace takes the gap interpretation step and does it for you — ranking every player by signal strength, scoring each one out of 10, and providing a plain-English summary. The output is a weekly ranked list, not a table you decode yourself.
How often does the ranked list update?: The list carries a live badge and updates in-week as new data becomes available. Rankings on Monday may differ from rankings on Wednesday as form data and other inputs refresh.
Can I check the track record before subscribing?: Yes. The full performance record is published at proplace.golf/performance. It's there to be audited, not just referenced.
What does the free trial include?: The 7-day free trial gives full access to the weekly ranked list, all player conviction scores, plain-English summaries, and in-week updates. No card is required at signup, and the trial cannot convert to a paid subscription on its own - you only pay if you choose a plan.