Two losing weeks, published in full: FedEx St. Jude and the Danish Championship

Both cards we published on 13 August lost money. The FedEx St. Jude Championship card returned less than it cost, and so did the Danish Golf Championship card. Eight selections, two of them placed, and a net loss across the fortnight of forty pounds to a flat ten pound each way stake.

That is the whole point of this page. A research product that only writes up its good weeks is a marketing channel wearing a lab coat. Below is every selection exactly as it went out before a ball was struck, beside what it actually did.

ProPlace is a statistical research product, not a tipster service and not a bookmaker. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org

FedEx St. Jude Championship, 13 to 16 August

Staked: four selections, ten pounds each way, eighty pounds total. Returned: seventy pounds. Net: minus ten pounds.

One placed finish out of four, and it was the selection sitting lowest on our own conviction scale. Our two highest conviction names, Young and Thomas, finished 39th and 47th in a fifty man field with no cut to hide behind. When a card has nowhere to hide, a poor week reads as a poor week.

Danish Golf Championship, 13 to 16 August

Staked: four selections, ten pounds each way, eighty pounds total. Returned: fifty pounds. Net: minus thirty pounds.

Lindell finishing second is the kind of week the model is built for: a name at a bigger price that the market had further down the board than we did. It was not enough. Two of the four did not see the weekend, and two non finishers inside one four man card is the sort of thing that turns a break even week into a losing one.

Past performance is not a guide to future results.

What we take from it, and what we do not

Two things are worth saying plainly.

First, eight selections is not a sample. It is a fortnight. Nothing in these two cards tells you the model is broken, and nothing in a good fortnight would tell you it works. Anyone drawing a conclusion in either direction from eight results is doing something other than research. The Wyndham Championship write up made the same point after a week where nothing placed at all.

Second, the conviction ordering did not help us this fortnight. In both events the selection that paid was not the one we rated highest. That is worth watching rather than explaining away, and it is the sort of thing we would rather log in public and be held to than quietly leave out of a monthly summary. If the number itself is new to you, what a conviction score is sets out how it is built, and how subscribers use a tournament week shows where it sits in the workflow. The staking convention above is the standard each way structure.

A note on the prices shown above

The win and place prices on both cards were generated from our own simulated outright market rather than captured from a bookmaker's board, and they are recorded in our database as estimated and unverified. We show them because they are what the model priced against when the selections were made. They are not a claim that anyone could have taken those prices at those numbers, and any return computed from them carries that caveat. We would rather flag that than present a simulated price as a taken one.

Where to see this for yourself

Every settled selection sits on the results page, win or miss, with nothing removed. If you want to see the reasoning that produces a card before it settles, how we pick sets out the factors, and the free card of the week shows you a real one at no cost.

Doug Dinwiddie. Founder of ProPlace. Former DP World Tour caddie.

Past performance is not a guide to future results. ProPlace is a statistical research product, not a tipster service and not a bookmaker. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org